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Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020

Midway along the journey of our life I woke to find myself in a dark wood, for I had wandered off from the straight path.
Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I
This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January.
The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March
[Chart]
The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent).
Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan.
As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events.
Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less.
Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation
One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue.
My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions.
As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation.
This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure).
This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings.
Mapping the sources of portfolio variances
Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements.
For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded.
Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value.
Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements?
The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation?
This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic.
Tracking course drift in the portfolio components
As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities.
Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations.
The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target.
[Chart]
This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation.
This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case.
A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone
This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached.
Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions.
At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses.
[Chart]
Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed.
Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary.
Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample.
For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1%
Summary
What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected.
What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above.
It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019.
This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under.
In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies.
The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month.
This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Profit Taking Tuesday

For Trading September 9th
PROFIT TAKING CONTINUES!
TSLA BIGGEST DECLINE
Today’s market started with the news that Mr. Trump got up early in order to continue to poke the Chinese Bear (they borrowed one from Putin, the thug) on the possibility that we would ban cotton imports and possibly blacklist another of their chip makers. Probably not going to get any traction, but you have to think that as well as AAPL and TSLA have navigated the issues surrounding their business in China, it could easily be put in jeopardy at any time. So, between that item, and the fact that the “BIG 6” wasn’t quite finished working off the run that it seems Softbank got started over the last month or so, we followed the leaders lower, rallied a bit until 3:00 and then sold off to make a new low and close -632.42 (2.25%), NASDAQ -465.45 (4.11%), S&P 500 -95.12 (2.78%), the Russell -30.71 (2%), and the best performer, DJ Transports -145 (1.29%). Market internals were soft with NYSE 3:1 lower with 3:1 down volume while NASDAQ was just over 2:1 lower. The DJIA was 26:4 lower with the biggest losers CRM -89, BA-66, GS & AAPL -56, and the biggest gainer was DIS +14 DP’s.
Tomorrow we have JOLTS (job openings) and mortgage applications to contend with. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TODAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/sZBKCQBEgm8
SECTORS: We started off the day with some Merger Monday action between Nikola and GM. GM taking a $2Billion stake in NKLA and NKLA planning to utilize the GM factories to build their “prospective” pickup truck. Both stocks were higher with NKLA gapping up to open $46.00 and trading as high as $54.56 and closing $50.05 +14.50 (40%), while GM opened $31.55, trading $33.33 and closing $32.38 +2.38 (7.93%). LULU posted solid earning growth and a beat on both earnings and revenues, but it just wasn’t enough as the stock which closed $349.80 -11.61 but then fell to $324 and is currently $329.50 -31.91 (8.83%). We also had a beat on both top and bottom lines at SLACK (WORK) but it too was short on guidance and “billings” and they took it out and shot it. It had closed $29.32 +.25 but fell as low as $23.27 and is now $23.85 -5.21 (18%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.85, BGS -1.89, FLO -.52, CPB -2.36, CAG -1.98, MDLZ -1.87, KHC -1.87, CALM -.03, JJSF -2.33, SAFM -1.26, HRL -.83, SJM -3.40, PPC -.23, KR -.83 and PBJ $33.06 -.95 (2.78%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.82, ABBV -2.24, REGN -17.31, ISRG -41.25 the biggest loser (5.61%), GILD -1.87, MYL .17, TEVA -.34, VRTX -7.89, BHC -.16, INCY -.76, ICPT -1.16, LABU -2.56, and IBB $126.10 -3.18 (2.45%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.37, CGC -.64, CRON -.15, GWPH +1.59, ACB -.88, NBEV -.10, CURLF +.01, KERN -.10, and MJ $11.31 -.80 (6.61%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -5.95, GD -4.74, TXT -.67, NOC -4.03, BWXT -1.32, TDY -5.18, RTX -2.02, and ITA $162.00 -4.64 (2.78%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.6, JWN -.19, KSS -.15, DDS +1.11, WMT -4.77, TGT -5.03, TJX -.18, RL -.59, UAA +.31, LULU -32.41 (SEE ABOVE), TPR +.44, CPRI +.34 and XRT $50.18 -.74 (1.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -64.42, AMZN -161.31, AAPL -8.64, FB -12.93, NFLX -8.06, NVDA -29.58, BABA 11.89, BIDU -4.54, CRM - 13.60, CMG -15.73, BA -10.62, CAT -.49, DIS +.01, and XLK 112.51 -5.61 (4.75%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with interest rates and GS -9.84, JPM -3.97, BAC -1.19, MS -2.89, C -1.75, PNC -4.59, AIG -.91, TRV -2.57, AXP -2.67, V -5.15, and XLF $24.54 -.75 (2.97%).
OIL, $36.76 – 3.01. Oil was lower in today’s trading and drifted lower all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was - $ .19 to $2.40 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month, and I am looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long.
GOLD $1,943.20 +8.90, sold off early but didn’t break below the $1905 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video today: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.91, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 which closed $2.08.
BITCOIN: closed $10,015 -605. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.11 -.90 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. Dollars

Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.

https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6

https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.

https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.

The Rise of Crypto Dollars

Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.

https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.

Institutional Developments

In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.

https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.

Future Opportunities

There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
Thank you.

Reference:
[1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
[2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
[3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
[4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
[5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
[6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
[7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
[8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
[9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
[10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
[11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
[12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
[13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
[14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
[15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
[16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
[17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
[18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
[19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
[20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
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SeeSaw Day

For Trading September 25TH
Seesaw Day!
COST Beats But Sells Off
ABSOLUTE LUNACY
Today’s market started off on the downside couldn’t get going and rallied, couldn’t make much headway and reversed again and closed pretty much unchanged. Really a “much ado about nothing. The Close was DJIA +52.31 (.20%), NASDAQ +39.28 (.37%), S&P 500 +9.67 (.30%), the Russell +.03, and DJ Transports +22.39 (.20%). Market internals were just 1:1 in NYSE and 1.4:1 down on NASDAQ. Volume was slightly higher. DJIA was split 17:13 UP with the only major movers were GS +59 DPs and BA -34 DP’s. The Continuing claims were 12,580,000 and initial claims 870,000. Both numbers were slightly higher than forecast, but within a reasonable range. They really didn’t have much effect on the market. Later in the morning New Home sales came in at +4.8% vs. -.03 expected. That number was a major expansion and well over forecast with the south being the biggest gainer, +13.4%.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/cHWJRLSdfMs
SECTORS: Goldman Sachs got an upgrade from UBS and the stock reacted well, closing $195.11 +8.99 (4.8%) and as mentioned above, the biggest gainer in the DJIA. WFC was also picked by Baird as its “fresh pick” whatever that means and was up a meager .49 @ $23.32. COSTCO (COST) reported great earnings and record sales but after a jump from $347 +2.37 it hit $354.16 but turned back and fell as far as $334 before closing $338.75 -5.88 (1.7%). SPI, yesterday’s EV star, which hit $46.67 before closing $14.00 had a range of $28.71 to $12.50 and closed $13.10 -.90; but today’s magic word deal was SUNW which yesterday made a statement about doing EV busines moved from $ .77 to $4.57 before closing $1.16 got better traction today and ran up to $8.50 before closing $3.93 +2.77 or 238%. New Group:
AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.23, RCL -.74, NCHL -.23, AAL unch., DAL -.16, LUV -.35, UAL +.19, HA -.41, ALK -.58 and XTN $57.27 -.23 (.40%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.09, BGS +.95, FLO +.25, CPB +1.25, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.79, KHC +.17, CALM +.75, JJSF +1.01, SAFM +2.11, HRL +.62, SJM +2.58, PPC -.04, KR +.17, and PBJ $31.98 +.30 (.95%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -2.,16, ABBV -.96, REGN -7.73, ISRG +.12, GILD -.61, MYL -.07, TEVA +.07, VRTX +.18, INCY -.90, ICPT +.47, LABU -1.48, and IBB $130.84 -1.24 (.94%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.10, CGC -.15, CRON +.10, GWPH -1.50, ACB +.,07, NBEV +.05, CURLF -.19, KERN -.23, and MJ..unchanged.
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -3.24, GD +.99, TXT -.12, NOC -3.06, BWXT -.95, TDY +.31, RTX -.35, and ITA $155.25 -1.45 (.93%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.01, JWN +.04, KSS -.01, DDS -1.01, WMT +1.49, TGT +.81, TJX +.10, RL -.31, UAA -.33, LULU -.57, TPR -.25, CPRI -.18 and XRT $48.53 -.75 (1.52%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +13.47, AMZN +498.01, AAPL +1.88, FB +2.41, NFLX +6.41, NVDA +14.05, TSLA +13.39, BABA -2.31, BIDU +1.13, CMG -17.28, CRM +4.01, BA -3.88, CAT +1.62, DIS -.03, and XLK $112.31 +1.65 (1.49%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +9.88, JPM +.55, BAC +.20, MS +.58, C +.53, PNC +.97, AIG +.07, TRV +.33, AXP +,.04, V +.63, and XLF $23.25 +.05 (.22%).
OIL, $40.31 + .38, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.20 -.01 (.03%).
GOLD $1,876.90 +8.50, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action.
BITCOIN: closed $10,670 +390. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.17 +.56 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Seesaw Day

For Trading September 25TH
Seesaw Day!
COST Beats But Sells Off
ABSOLUTE LUNACY
Today’s market started off on the downside couldn’t get going and rallied, couldn’t make much headway and reversed again and closed pretty much unchanged. Really a “much ado about nothing. The Close was DJIA +52.31 (.20%), NASDAQ +39.28 (.37%), S&P 500 +9.67 (.30%), the Russell +.03, and DJ Transports +22.39 (.20%). Market internals were just 1:1 in NYSE and 1.4:1 down on NASDAQ. Volume was slightly higher. DJIA was split 17:13 UP with the only major movers were GS +59 DPs and BA -34 DP’s. The Continuing claims were 12,580,000 and initial claims 870,000. Both numbers were slightly higher than forecast, but within a reasonable range. They really didn’t have much effect on the market. Later in the morning New Home sales came in at +4.8% vs. -.03 expected. That number was a major expansion and well over forecast with the south being the biggest gainer, +13.4%.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/cHWJRLSdfMs
SECTORS: Goldman Sachs got an upgrade from UBS and the stock reacted well, closing $195.11 +8.99 (4.8%) and as mentioned above, the biggest gainer in the DJIA. WFC was also picked by Baird as its “fresh pick” whatever that means and was up a meager .49 @ $23.32. COSTCO (COST) reported great earnings and record sales but after a jump from $347 +2.37 it hit $354.16 but turned back and fell as far as $334 before closing $338.75 -5.88 (1.7%). SPI, yesterday’s EV star, which hit $46.67 before closing $14.00 had a range of $28.71 to $12.50 and closed $13.10 -.90; but today’s magic word deal was SUNW which yesterday made a statement about doing EV busines moved from $ .77 to $4.57 before closing $1.16 got better traction today and ran up to $8.50 before closing $3.93 +2.77 or 238%. New Group:
AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.23, RCL -.74, NCHL -.23, AAL unch., DAL -.16, LUV -.35, UAL +.19, HA -.41, ALK -.58 and XTN $57.27 -.23 (.40%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.09, BGS +.95, FLO +.25, CPB +1.25, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.79, KHC +.17, CALM +.75, JJSF +1.01, SAFM +2.11, HRL +.62, SJM +2.58, PPC -.04, KR +.17, and PBJ $31.98 +.30 (.95%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -2.,16, ABBV -.96, REGN -7.73, ISRG +.12, GILD -.61, MYL -.07, TEVA +.07, VRTX +.18, INCY -.90, ICPT +.47, LABU -1.48, and IBB $130.84 -1.24 (.94%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.10, CGC -.15, CRON +.10, GWPH -1.50, ACB +.,07, NBEV +.05, CURLF -.19, KERN -.23, and MJ..unchanged.
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -3.24, GD +.99, TXT -.12, NOC -3.06, BWXT -.95, TDY +.31, RTX -.35, and ITA $155.25 -1.45 (.93%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.01, JWN +.04, KSS -.01, DDS -1.01, WMT +1.49, TGT +.81, TJX +.10, RL -.31, UAA -.33, LULU -.57, TPR -.25, CPRI -.18 and XRT $48.53 -.75 (1.52%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +13.47, AMZN +498.01, AAPL +1.88, FB +2.41, NFLX +6.41, NVDA +14.05, TSLA +13.39, BABA -2.31, BIDU +1.13, CMG -17.28, CRM +4.01, BA -3.88, CAT +1.62, DIS -.03, and XLK $112.31 +1.65 (1.49%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +9.88, JPM +.55, BAC +.20, MS +.58, C +.53, PNC +.97, AIG +.07, TRV +.33, AXP +,.04, V +.63, and XLF $23.25 +.05 (.22%).
OIL, $40.31 + .38, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.20 -.01 (.03%).
GOLD $1,876.90 +8.50, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action.
BITCOIN: closed $10,670 +390. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.17 +.56 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to u/Dashover [link] [comments]

CRM and TOL beat...

For Trading August 26th
Is the DJIA an Industrial Average?
More New Highs for NAZ & S&P-500
CRM & TOL BEAT ON EARNINGS
Today’s market was interesting in that the DJIA futures were higher, S&P was about unchanged, and the NASDAQ was lower, and by the close it was exactly the opposite! The DJIA finished -60.02 (.21%), NASDAQ +86.75 (.76%), S&P 500 +12.34 (.36%), the Russell +2.74 (.17%), and DJ Transports -21.60 (.19%). Market internals were neutral on NYSE at 1:1 while the NASDAQ was better @ 1.5:1 although volume was lighter than yesterday. Consumer confidence was a major disappointment with the number coming in at 84.9, down from the expectations of 93, and last month’s 91.7, the lowest number since May 2014! New home sales were a monster +13.9% v. 1.4 expected and prices added 7.2%. Earnings after the close for TOL (see below) mirrored that sentiment. Tomorrow we have both durable goods orders and weekly mortgage applications.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rdmhyt5MGtnSTbpYrv__gUUETHUDYoII/view Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/5RGgfJ667nc
SECTORS: After the close, TOL reported blockbuster numbers and they were a reflection of the New Home sales numbers mentioned above. TOL is at the high-end of the price scale and the demand for its upscale homes that can include in-home offices, gyms, and other extras were clearly in demand. The stock is up 300% since the March lows and today’s numbers sent it even higher. The stock had closed $45.06 +.37, but after the report it traded up to $48.50 and at this writing it was $48.20 +2.14 (3%). Also, on the earnings front, the newest member of the DJIA, CRM was higher all day on the DJIA addition finishing $216.05 +7.57 (3.6%) and after the numbers really took off trading up to $244.50 and finishing $243.50 +27.45 (12.5%). It would have added about 160 DP’s if it had already been included. BBY made up some of its early losses after giving soft guidance for revenues in the coming quarter and after trading $108.60, it came back about half and closed $112.64 -4.73 (4%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.01, BGS +.62, FLO +.15, CPB +.34, CAG +.48, MDLZ -.09, KHC +.28, CALM -.13, JJSF -.62, SAFM +.49, HRL -1.12, SJM +7.51 (6.65%), PPC +.09, KR +.02, and PBJ $34.34 +.03 (.08%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +2.47, ABBV -.51, REGN +15.73, ISRG +3.76, GILD -.08, MYL -.32, TEVA -.43, VRTX +4.92, BHC -.04, INCY +1.27, ICPT +1.56, LABU +1.80, and IBB $132.90 +1.,85 (1.41%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.09, CGC +.29, CRON -.02, GWPH -2.77, ACB -.06, NBEV +.04, CURLF +.22, KERN +.07, and MJ $12.45 +.05 (.40%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.38, GD -1.85, TXT -.63, NOC -1.42, BWXT +.34, TDY +2.28, RTX -.90, and ITA $168.12 -1.27 (.75%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.09, JWN -.72, KSS +.21, DDS +.48, WMT -.66, TGT -.56, TJX -.39, RL -1.13, UAA -.07, LULU +3.69, TPR -.39, CPRI -.11, and XRT $52.50 -.38 (.72%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +20.70, AMZN +36.65, AAPL -3.83, FB +11.04 (4.07%), NFLX +2.39, NVDA +2.14, TSLA +29.05, BABA +10.53, BIDU +2.82, CMG +31.23, BA -4.17, CAT -.39, DIS -.84, and XLK $120.26 +1.30 (1.09%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -1.43, JPM +.54, BAC +.31, MS -.26, C +.56, PNC +.97, AIG -.03, TRV +.72, AXP +.23, V +1.79, and XLF $24.95 +.06 (.24%).
OIL, $43.35 +.73. Oil was higher in today’s trading before we rose further in the afternoon closing up at the top end of the day’s range. Some of the gains may be storm related, but gasoline is helping support prices. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $3736.63 -.39 (1.05%).
GOLD $1,923.10 -16.10, rose early in the session but couldn’t make any headway before selling off and finishing near the lows. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.66.
BITCOIN: closed $11,310 - 460. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.00 -.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

$ 144 million transaction cost bitcoin whale 30 cents commission

$ 144 million transaction cost bitcoin whale 30 cents commission
One of the largest Bitcoin holders emptied his wallet in one transaction at 14,922 BTC ($ 144 million). The commission was only $ 0.3.
Information about the movement of funds published service Whale Alert. According to him, bitcoins were transferred to an unknown address.
https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1262484285908549640

https://preview.redd.it/3x5974i37pz41.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a847137857dbb3406e07a95a0a39413cd1b4e122

The identity of the whale is also unknown, but its wallet has been the subject of close attention in recent months. According to BitInfoCharts, on April 5, the address was 58th in terms of the number of bitcoins on the balance sheet (12,380 BTC or $ 85.08 million at the exchange rate of that time).

https://preview.redd.it/qxlsc45y7pz41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c7e25119d4b35e94da1ed1a323eaf46d97e3232
On May 13, the wallet rose to 48th place, bringing the total cryptocurrency to 15,470 BTC ($ 138.15 million at that time).
A week earlier, an unknown whale transferred 47,835 BTC ($ 417 million) with a commission of $ 1.44.
In October 2019, a transaction on 112,027 BTC was carried out on the Bitcoin network (more than $ 930 million at that time). The commission then amounted to $ 3.89.
In September last year, a transaction was recorded at 94,504 BTC, which exceeded $ 1 billion at the exchange rate at the time of the transfer. In this case, the commission turned out to be unusually high - $ 700.
submitted by btcxlab to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

For Trading August 14th

For Trading August 14th
TSLA $1,645 + 91.24 (6%)
GOLD / SILVER Recover
BIDU GIVES POOR GUIDANCE
Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on the combination of continuing claims and initial claims numbers and the report of higher import and export prices. The DJIA traded in a narrow range and finished midrange and -80.12 (.29%), the NASDAQ was higher all day hitting a high of +112 but gave back much of the gain closing +30.26 (.27%), S & P 500 -6.92 (.20%), the Russell -3.46 (.22%), and DJ Transports -49.62 (.45%) but still putting in a good show for the week. Market internals were soft with NYSE 1.5:1 and NASDAQ 1.3:1, both Down. Volume was lighter than yesterday.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/a3e7lR_AR8U Today’s Video on the Coffee/ JO trade: https://youtu.be/JGFQ8iM8CPc
SECTORS: There really wasn’t much in the way of news today, with the exception of the California Court of Appeals denying the TRO from both UBER and LYFT on the classification of drivers as employees instead of contractors. Both have threatened to halt their services which account for about 16% of their revenues just in California. LYFT reported yesterday and the stock was down from a high of $31.62 to close today $28.83 -1.64 (5.37%) and UBER, which has fallen from a high of $34.79 a week ago to close the day today $30.46 -.38 (1.23%) but down 12% for the week. As mentioned before, CSCO reported a poor showing and last night it was $44.47, but it continued today and finished $42.72 -5.38 (11.2%). AMAT beat on revenues and earnings and gave solid guidance and after closing $65.07 – 1.43 it reversed higher and is $67.37 +2.30, and BIDU beat on earnings but with only in-line revenues and gave a warning about ad revenues in the coming quarter. It closed $124.57 -1.54 (1.22%) but is now trading $115.32 -9.25 (7.25%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -1.11, BGS -.06, FLO -.14, CPB +.22, CAG -.14, MDLZ -.02, KHC +.22, CALM Unchanged, JJSF -.28, SAFM -1.14, HRL +.09, PPC +.07, SJM +.57, KR +.16, and PBJ $33.94 +.05 (.15%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.72, ABBV -.51, REGN -1.46, ISRG +7.47, GILD -.61, MYL +.02, TEVA -.07, VRTX -3.70, BHC -.20, INCY +1.38, LABU +2.32, and IBB $134.11 +.30 (.22%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.21, CGC +.08, CRON -.01, GWPH -.52, ACB +.45, NBEV +.08, CURLF -.10, KERN -.22, and MJ $13.07 +.29 (2.27%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -3.20, GD -.10, TXT -.80, NOC -.78, BWXT -.40, TDY +.35, RTX -.29, and ITA $169.95 -.97 (.57%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.03, JWN +.40, KSS -.18, DDS +.21, WMT +.55, TGT +.49, TJX -.52, RL +.32, UAA -.17, LULU +4.96, TPR -.09, CPRI -.30, and XRT $51.23 +.17 (.33%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.75, AMZN +4.26, AAPL +7.86, FB +2.62, NFLX +6.53, NVDA +1.59, TSLA +80.24, BABA -2.36, BIDU -10.28, CMG +37.02, BA -.14, CAT -1.57, DIS -.70, and XLK $113.96 +.05 (.04%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.33, JPM -.39, BAC -.33, MS -.17, C -.30, PNC -.99, AIG -.23, TRV +.41, AXP -1.14, V -.44, and XLF $25.08 -.16 (.63%).
OIL, $42.24 -.43. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.83 -.75 (1.94%).
GOLD $1,970.40 +21.40 was a dramatic sell-off taking the gold down as low as $1,874.00 before a rally back to $1,975. While I like the gold down here, I will have to see how it trades for a day or two. I am still a bull on the metal.
BITCOIN: closed $11,590 -75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $13.09 -.02 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

TESLA 5:1

For Trading August 12th
TSLA 5:1 SPLIT
GOLD / SILVER COLLAPSE
DJIA CLOSES 450 OFF HIGH
Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on DJIA and S&P-500 but general weakness in the NASDAQ, again. By the end of the day the DJIA -104.53 (.38%) was well off its +363 high and the NASDAQ was the big loser -185.54 (1.69%). The S&P 500 was -26.78 (.80) after being withing a few dollars of a new high, the Russell -9.57 (.6%), and the only winner the DJ Transports +24.59 (.23%). Market internals were 1:1 on the NYSE but 1.5:1 down on the NASDAQ. Volume was slightly higher than average for an August day. The major feature of the day was the massive selloff in the precious metals. Gold was down $125/oz. at the low and finished $1946.30 -93.40 (6%) while the Silver was lower by $3.21 to $26.049 after hitting an intraday low of $24.48. The change at the close was 12%. I would assume that we would see some follow-thru tonight and tomorrow early, but I bought the NEM September $65 / 70 call spread for $1.45. This is basically the same trade I made last month on the August expo $60/65 spread @ $1.30 that we sold @ $3.20. We also had the TBT 9/18 15 calls @ $ .40 that we sold today half @ $ .68, and the second half @ $ .74 just before they fell back to $ .55. Not bad, with YTD now back to +34%.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/EvsCZy_K1sw SECTORS: We didn’t have much corporate news today but QCOM won an appeals court ruling on an anti-trust case and the stock ignored the selloff and finished the day $108.83 +2.47 (2.3%). That made it a standout as the rest of technology was hit hard again today. It was the 3rd day down for the NASDAQ since its new closing high at $11,108.07 last Thursday. The biggest news of the late day was the announcement that TESLA (TSLA) declared a 5:1 stock split. While this is really just straight arithmetic, it does create some demand for the shares now, since when the stock split becomes effective at the end of August you would have 5 times the shares at 1/5 of the price. But it does promote the purchase of “round lots” as opposed to “odd lots.” Does it really increase demand? Not really, but most stocks (like AAPL) do seem to rise on the news. TSLA certainly did, closing $1374 -44, and then on the news rallied to its current $1467.20, over $90 higher. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +.82, BGS -.46, FLO +.20, CPB -.63, CAG -.49, MDLZ -.49, KHC -.16, CALM +.19, JJSF -.35, SAFM +2.10, HRL -.31, SJM -.84, PPC +.27, KR -.58, and PBJ #33.32 -.37 (1.13%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -10.32, ABBV +.19, REGN -9.38, ISRG -8.00, GILD +.35, MYL +.39, TEVA -.07, VRTX -6.87, BHC +.16, INCY -1.32, ICPT -.25, LABU -6.96, and IBB $132.28-2.59 (1.92%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.95, CGC -.54, CRON -.06, GWPH -3.52, ACB -.14, NBEV -.02, CURLF -.38, KERN -.29, and MJ $12.95 +.01 (.08%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.03, GD +2.94, TXT -.18, NOC +6.27, BWXT +.22, TDY +1.75, RTX +.16, and ITA $172.14 +.91 (.53%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.16, JWN +.07, KSS +.55, DDS +.66, WMT -1.33, TGT -1.22, TJX +1.08, RL +1.77, UAA +.27, LULU -8.95, TPR +.12, CPRI +.31, and XRT $50.60 -.39 (.76%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -12.81, AMZN -63.15, AAPL -10.52, FB -5.50, NFLX -14.89, NVDA -10.20, TSLA +50.43, BABA +.87, BIDU +.08, CMG -11.00, CAT +1.23, MSFT -3.,85, BA +.98, DIS +1.86, and XLK $112.00 -1.42 (1.25%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.42, JPM +3.58, BAC +.47, MS +1.22, C +1.17, PNC +3.32, AIG +.52, TRV +.80, AXP +1.70, V +1.46, and XLF $25.31 +.29 (1.16%).
OIL, $41.61 -.33. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $38.20 -.13 (.34%).
GOLD $1,946.30 -93.40, was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $2,089.20, but we collapsed and fell as far as $1,919 -124 before coming back slightly. Tonight, we are currently trading lower again at $1,915.70 – 30.00. While I like the gold down here, I will have to wait and see how it acts overnight.
BITCOIN: closed $11,435 -580. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $12.54 -1.15 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading April 29th

OIL Falters, again
Financials, Energy, and Materials Rally
The Russell Up, NASDAQ Down
Today’s market got off to an upward start and was + 470 by 9:45 but gave it up pretty quickly making the low of -120 by 11:15. From there we had a rally that kept us between -60 and +100 for the next 4 hours finishing -32.23 (.13%), NASDAQ -122.43 (1.4%), S&P 500 -16.09 (.52%), the Russell +16.20 (1.26%) and the DJ Transports +89.90 (1.08%). Bottom line here is that we had really split market with NASDAQ and Russell at opposite ends of the spectrum. Consumer confidence fell hard to 86.9 vs 92 expected and Richmond Fed was -53 vs. +2 expected. Market internals were mixed too, with NYSE 2.5:1 Up while the NAZ was only 9:7 higher. Volume remained light. The DJIA was 17 up, 13 down with the leaders MMM +28, GS +24, AXP +21, and DD and BA +18 DPs. On the downside we had UNH -41, AAPL -31, MSFT -29 and JNJ -19 DPs. Energy, financials and Materials were the strength while Healthcare, info technology and communications services the weakest.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/NSO2vQcSY-o
SECTORS: Earnings played a big part in today’s market. PEP last night with a beat and was +1.86, CINF was a miss last night and gapped down this morning to 76.28 and just continued to fall to $71.27 before closing $71.81 -10.22 (12.46%). On the upside we had HOG with a “not as bad as expected +2.88 (15.21%), ADS $47.60 +6.21 (15%), and ALK $31.58 +3.73 (13.39%).
After the close we heard from Google and it was a beat on revenues and after closing $1232.59 -38.27 and after trading $1206.97, turned back higher and after hitting $1290 is currently $1267 +35. SBUX was a slight miss and after closing 78.69 is now 77.60 -1.10. AMD missed on expected revenue growth and after its recent move back from a recent low of $36.75 to over $58, fell to $52.40 and is $53.21 -2.29 (4.13%).
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY is clearly Creative Realities (CREX), a small firm with a stock that closed $1.00 yesterday +22%, came out of the gate this morning unchanged and rallied on the news that it has a “non-contact temperature system” that along with its AI enabled software “addresses the urgent need for businesses and employers to build consumer confidence as the world goes back to work as stay at home orders are reduced throughout the U.S.” The stock traded as high as $5.15 and is currently 4.85 +3.85 or 385%...Clearly a home run.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +2.51, BGS +1.50, FLO +.06, CAG +.05, MDLZ -.73, KHC +.25, CALM +.21, JJSF +1.92, SAFM +.35 and LANC +1.52.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB +1.98, ABBV -1.64, REGN -18.91, ISRG -13.65, GILD -1.51, MYL +.30, TEVA +.17, VRTX -11.55 (4.3%), BHC -.41, INCY -5.31 (5.16%), ICPT -4.10, LABU -2.89 and IBB $124.86 -2.67 (2.09%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.30, CGC -.53, CRON -.18, GWPH -1.67, ACB -.016, PYX -.14, NBEV -.04, CURLF -.28, KERN +.05 and MJ $12.40 +.02 (.16%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.23, RTX +.71, GD +2.74, TXT +.86, NOC +2.19, BWXT +.33, TDY +5.96 and ITA N$163.94 +2.88 (1.91%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.51, JWN +.21, KSS +1.26, DDS +3.21 (11.35%), JCP +.026, WMT -.28, TGT +2.23, TJX +1.86, RL +3.61, UAA +.36, LULU -1.82, TPR +1.06, CPRI +1.18 and XRT $36.97 +.61 (1.68%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL the big exception on earning +74.34 (5.85%), AMZN -21.00, AAPL -2.48, FB +2.71, NFLX -15.68, NVDA -1.34, TSLA -22.25, BABA -1.69, BIDU -2.56, CMG -13.07, BA +2.22, CAT +.31, DIS +.60, and XLK $88.85 -.54 (.60%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.57, JPM +1.03, BAC +.53, MS +.95, C +.89, PNC +.50, AIG +1.38, TRV +1.40, AXP +3.15, V +.74 and XLF $22.75 +.27 (1.2%).
OIL, $112.34 -.44. Oil was a BIG STORY another day of liquidation that took June all the way down to trade $10.07 before turning back higher to 13.69 before closing -.44. Tonight, it is higher again trading 13.05 +.71. The stocks were also higher with gains of about 2% and XLE closed $36.22 +.85 (2.4%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,724.40 + .60. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We have spent the last 3 days consolidating the gains and hit $1,720 today. I said I wanted to get long the GLD if we can probe the $1710 range, and when it traded $17.04 today, I was a buyer. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $7,780 unchanged. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.40 -.39 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading April 30th

OIL Moves Higher
GOOGL, TSLA, & MSFT Blow Away Numbers
Russell the Big Winner
Today’s market got off to a dramatic start when already +200 in the futures, GILD came out with positive news on the NIAID trial for Remdesivir and we added an additional 250 to the open. The Fed FOMC was a nonevent, but after the Q&A, it became obvious that the money train would keep rolling, the Gold moved higher. The final numbers were impressive with DJIA +532.31 (2.21%), NASDAQ +306.98 (3.57%), S&P 500 +76.12 (2.66%), the Russell, the big winner +62.68 (4.83%) and the DJ Transports +221.30 (2.63%). Market internals were strong with NYSE 7:1 and NASDAQ 4:1 and for the first time in recent memory, volume was higher. The DJIA was 24:6 with WMT the only double-digit loser -30 DPs while on the upside we had V +72, AAPL +62, AXP & BA +53, and MSFT +52 (and more coming in the morning).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/el59hhpILHY
SECTORS: Earnings played a big part in today’s market. After the close last night, we heard from Google and it was a beat on revenues and after closing $1232.59 -38.27 and finished the evening $1267 +35. It continued higher today and finished $1345.02 +112.43 (9.12%). After today’s close we heard from a few of the other FAANG names. FaceBook was a miss both top and bottom but the guidance they gave on ad spending was upbeat. After closing 194.19 +11.28 it to 214.57 + another $20. MSFT beat on both numbers and after closing $177.43 +7.62 it shot higher to 186.52 before closing $181.25 + 3.82. TSLA was the last one to report and the stock has been on a tear from a low of $350 in mid-March to close today $800.51 +31.39 and put out a profitable quarter and talked about it big truck. The stock moved to $886.89 and closed $870.30 for a total gain of $101.88 (13.25%).
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY is clearly Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) reported that it had a 100% survival of its patients treated with CAP-1002. All were in deep respiratory distress and 5 of the 6 were on ventilators. Four of the six have already been discharged. The stock, which has been reversed twice, most recently 1:10, and the last time 1:50 finished the day $8.50 +6.09 (252.7%) Clearly a home run. But with a side note since the adjusted high after both reverses is $2,720. Quite a destroyer of equity.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN +.74, BGS -.75, FLO -.47, CAG -.19, MDLZ -.55, KHC +.81, CALM -.79, JJSF +10.71 (8.48%), SAFM -3.43, and LANC +3.09.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB -.46, ABBV +1.20, REGN -17.26 (3.27%), ISRG +16.27 (3.23%), GILD +6.37, MYL +1.06, TEVA +.36, VRTX +1.54, BHC +.95, INCY -1.71, ICPT +1.07, LABU +1.36, and IBB $126.55 +1.74 (1.39%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.18, CGC +.46, CRON +.06, GWPH -.18, ACB +.01, PYX +.03, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.30 (6.67%), KERN -.21 and MJ $12.44 +.18 (1.47%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.17, RTX +3.39, GD +.71, TXT +1.48, NOC -12.70, BWXT -.07, TDY +12.71 and ITA $161.85 +7.91 (5.14%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with WMT the big loser again -3.89 (3.04%), M +.26, JWN -.02, KSS +.66, DDS -.45, JCP -.017, TGT +.85, TJX +4.90 (9.98%), RL +2.53, UAA +.19, LULU +7.96, TPPR +1.24 (7.7%), CPRI +1.68 (11.17%), and XRT $37.92 +1.10 (2.99%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +112.43 (9.12%), AMZN +104.12 (4.5%), AAPL +13.72 (4.92%), FB +31.66 (17.31%), NFLX +8.68, NVDA +9.44, TSLA +101.80 (13.25%), BABA +7.15, BIDU +3.12, CMG +26.64, BA +9.65, CAT +5.28, DIS +6.51 (6.13%) and XLK $93.45 +5.25 (5.95%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS 5.49, JPM +3.71, BAC +1.31, MS +1.43, C +4.04 (8.56%), PNC +5.00, AIG +2.52 (9.97%), TRV +1.72, AXP +9.16 (10.39%), V +13.74 (8.02%) and XLF $23.38 +.66 (2.9%).
OIL, $15.06 +2.72. Oil was higher again today and seems to be making a decent show of making an important bottom. Tonight, it is higher again trading 15.95 +.89. The stocks were also much higher with gains of between 6% on the big names and as much as 30% on some of the small ones. XLE closed $39.95 +3.77 (5.63%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,713.40 -8.80. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We have spent the last 3 days consolidating the gains and hit $1,720 today. I said I wanted to get long the GLD if we can probe the $1710 range, and when it traded $17.04 yesterday I was a buyer. We took the downside move this morning and averaged down @ $1.06, and they closed $1.61. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $8825 +1045. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $9.60 +1.20 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading May 6th

Oil +20% Again
Rally Fades by Half
Today’s market got off to a strong start yet again but at the end of the day we had two down waves starting around 2:45 that cut gains by about 2/3. Market internals were a bit on the soft side with NYSE A/D only 4:3 and NASDAQ 17:15. Volume was lighter than the past few days and the DJIA had 21 up and 9 down. The biggest losers were BA -41 and MCD -18 DPs while the gainers were UNH +37, AAPL +30 and HD +26 DPs. All these names were higher before the last hour with AAPL trading $301 but finishing $297.80. The news of the day on the economy was not great. ISM Non-manufacturing Index for Aprildropped to 41.8from 52.5 in March. 50% is the breakpoint for expansion/contraction. The trade balance showed a widening in the deficit to $44.4 billion from $39.8 in February. Exports were down $20 billion. Tomorrow we have the ADP Employment change report for April and weekly MBA Mortgage applications.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RxpgADmtffzTPWRgeZ_UrfL4LszWvZR1/view?usp=sharing
SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market. NEM was a strong report and the stock, already up from $58 on Friday finished the day $64.91 +2.17 (3.46%), DIS was the big loser with volumes down due to closed parks and no production taking place at the studios. Streaming is strong, but a big piece is being done at reduced rates or even for free. At the close the stock was $101.06 -2.12 but after a small rally, the conference call started and after the company disclosed it is suspending its dividend for the first half it slid to 99.25. BYND reported good sales growth and the recent closures of several major meat processing plants has been buoying prices. The stock has rallied off an April low of $57 and closed today $100.16 +5.00 and is currently trading $105 + $5 more.
Two companies in the same business, EA and ATVI went in opposite directions. EA was a miss and after closing $119.61 +2.78 it fell t0 112.12 and is currently 113.98 – 5.62. Activision (ATVI) beat handily and it had closed 68.53 +1.83 and is now $72.40 + 3.87 more. Pinterest (PINS) had risen from a low of $10.10 last month to close $20.81 -.62 but missed on several metrics and has traded down to $16.70 and is $17.15 – 3.66. Also, on the bad news side, UAL finished $24.12 -1.14 (4.5%) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) warned about it continuing as a “going concern.” The stock is down from $60 and finished the day $11.18 -3.26 (22.58%).
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.57, BGS +.77, FLO +.11, CAG -.03, MDLZ +.19, KHC +.02, CALM -.39, JJSF +2.66, SAFM +1.97, and LANC +7.67 (5.68%).
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.46, ABBV +4.14, REGN +32.55 (6.01%), ISRG +15.01, GILD -1.54, MYL +.05, TEVA +.31, VRTX +7.81, BHC +.10, INCY -2.17, ICPT +1.71, LABU +2.58 and IBB $127.00 +2.45 (1.97%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.27, CGC +.10, CRON -.08, GWPH +.72, ACB -.012, PYX -.74, NBEV -.02, CURLF +.06, KERN -.01 and MJ $11.90 -.05 (.42%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +10.14, RTX +.15, GD +1.72, TXT -.34, NOC +6.18, BWXT +3.09 (6.05%), TDY +1.22 and ITA $147.45 +.01.
RETAIL was MIXED with M -.06, JWN -.52, KSS -.27, DDS -1.31 (4.8%), JCP -.0145, WMT +1.04, TGT +.14, TJX +.14, RL +.45, UAA -.31, LULU -.48, TPR unch., CPRI -.07, and XRT $36.16 +.31 (.86%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +36.89, AMZN +7.98, AAPL +5.54, FB +2.39, NFLX -1.65, NVDA +3.94, TSLA +12.31, BABA +4.50, BIDU +.84, CMG -5.75, CAT +1.96, BA -4.96, DIS (see above), and XLK $91.45 +1.37 (1.52%).
FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +2.97, JPM +.01, BAC -.19, MS -.02, C -1.15, PNC -1.61, AIG +.73, TRV -.06, AXP +.62, V +2.29, and XLF $21.79 -.07 (.32%).
OIL, $24.56 +4.17. Oil was higher overnight and the rally continued on all day. The stocks were mixed with only the big names moving higher. XLE closed $37.52 +.43 (1.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.60 -2.70. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 165 calls and I replaced them with the $163 strike. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $8985 +50. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher with a high of 9560. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.02 + .05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to pennystocks [link] [comments]

For Trading May 6th

Oil +20% Again
Rally Fades by Half
Today’s market got off to a strong start yet again but at the end of the day we had two down waves starting around 2:45 that cut gains by about 2/3. Market internals were a bit on the soft side with NYSE A/D only 4:3 and NASDAQ 17:15. Volume was lighter than the past few days and the DJIA had 21 up and 9 down. The biggest losers were BA -41 and MCD -18 DPs while the gainers were UNH +37, AAPL +30 and HD +26 DPs. All these names were higher before the last hour with AAPL trading $301 but finishing $297.80. The news of the day on the economy was not great. ISM Non-manufacturing Index for Aprildropped to 41.8from 52.5 in March. 50% is the breakpoint for expansion/contraction. The trade balance showed a widening in the deficit to $44.4 billion from $39.8 in February. Exports were down $20 billion. Tomorrow we have the ADP Employment change report for April and weekly MBA Mortgage applications.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RxpgADmtffzTPWRgeZ_UrfL4LszWvZR1/view?usp=sharing
SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market. NEM was a strong report and the stock, already up from $58 on Friday finished the day $64.91 +2.17 (3.46%), DIS was the big loser with volumes down due to closed parks and no production taking place at the studios. Streaming is strong, but a big piece is being done at reduced rates or even for free. At the close the stock was $101.06 -2.12 but after a small rally, the conference call started and after the company disclosed it is suspending its dividend for the first half it slid to 99.25. BYND reported good sales growth and the recent closures of several major meat processing plants has been buoying prices. The stock has rallied off an April low of $57 and closed today $100.16 +5.00 and is currently trading $105 + $5 more.
Two companies in the same business, EA and ATVI went in opposite directions. EA was a miss and after closing $119.61 +2.78 it fell t0 112.12 and is currently 113.98 – 5.62. Activision (ATVI) beat handily and it had closed 68.53 +1.83 and is now $72.40 + 3.87 more. Pinterest (PINS) had risen from a low of $10.10 last month to close $20.81 -.62 but missed on several metrics and has traded down to $16.70 and is $17.15 – 3.66. Also, on the bad news side, UAL finished $24.12 -1.14 (4.5%) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) warned about it continuing as a “going concern.” The stock is down from $60 and finished the day $11.18 -3.26 (22.58%).
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.57, BGS +.77, FLO +.11, CAG -.03, MDLZ +.19, KHC +.02, CALM -.39, JJSF +2.66, SAFM +1.97, and LANC +7.67 (5.68%).
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.46, ABBV +4.14, REGN +32.55 (6.01%), ISRG +15.01, GILD -1.54, MYL +.05, TEVA +.31, VRTX +7.81, BHC +.10, INCY -2.17, ICPT +1.71, LABU +2.58 and IBB $127.00 +2.45 (1.97%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.27, CGC +.10, CRON -.08, GWPH +.72, ACB -.012, PYX -.74, NBEV -.02, CURLF +.06, KERN -.01 and MJ $11.90 -.05 (.42%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +10.14, RTX +.15, GD +1.72, TXT -.34, NOC +6.18, BWXT +3.09 (6.05%), TDY +1.22 and ITA $147.45 +.01.
RETAIL was MIXED with M -.06, JWN -.52, KSS -.27, DDS -1.31 (4.8%), JCP -.0145, WMT +1.04, TGT +.14, TJX +.14, RL +.45, UAA -.31, LULU -.48, TPR unch., CPRI -.07, and XRT $36.16 +.31 (.86%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +36.89, AMZN +7.98, AAPL +5.54, FB +2.39, NFLX -1.65, NVDA +3.94, TSLA +12.31, BABA +4.50, BIDU +.84, CMG -5.75, CAT +1.96, BA -4.96, DIS (see above), and XLK $91.45 +1.37 (1.52%).
FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +2.97, JPM +.01, BAC -.19, MS -.02, C -1.15, PNC -1.61, AIG +.73, TRV -.06, AXP +.62, V +2.29, and XLF $21.79 -.07 (.32%).
OIL, $24.56 +4.17. Oil was higher overnight and the rally continued on all day. The stocks were mixed with only the big names moving higher. XLE closed $37.52 +.43 (1.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.60 -2.70. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 165 calls and I replaced them with the $163 strike. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $8985 +50. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher with a high of 9560. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.02 + .05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading April 30th Market Mover’s

For Trading April 30th
OIL Moves Higher
GOOGL, TSLA, & MSFT Blow Away Numbers
Russell the Big Winner
Today’s market got off to a dramatic start when already +200 in the futures, GILD came out with positive news on the NIAID trial for Remdesivir and we added an additional 250 to the open. The Fed FOMC was a nonevent, but after the Q&A, it became obvious that the money train would keep rolling, the Gold moved higher. The final numbers were impressive with DJIA +532.31 (2.21%), NASDAQ +306.98 (3.57%), S&P 500 +76.12 (2.66%), the Russell, the big winner +62.68 (4.83%) and the DJ Transports +221.30 (2.63%). Market internals were strong with NYSE 7:1 and NASDAQ 4:1 and for the first time in recent memory, volume was higher. The DJIA was 24:6 with WMT the only double-digit loser -30 DPs while on the upside we had V +72, AAPL +62, AXP & BA +53, and MSFT +52 (and more coming in the morning).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/el59hhpILHY
SECTORS: Earnings played a big part in today’s market. After the close last night, we heard from Google and it was a beat on revenues and after closing $1232.59 -38.27 and finished the evening $1267 +35. It continued higher today and finished $1345.02 +112.43 (9.12%). After today’s close we heard from a few of the other FAANG names. FaceBook was a miss both top and bottom but the guidance they gave on ad spending was upbeat. After closing 194.19 +11.28 it to 214.57 + another $20. MSFT beat on both numbers and after closing $177.43 +7.62 it shot higher to 186.52 before closing $181.25 + 3.82. TSLA was the last one to report and the stock has been on a tear from a low of $350 in mid-March to close today $800.51 +31.39 and put out a profitable quarter and talked about it big truck. The stock moved to $886.89 and closed $870.30 for a total gain of $101.88 (13.25%).
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY is clearly Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) reported that it had a 100% survival of its patients treated with CAP-1002. All were in deep respiratory distress and 5 of the 6 were on ventilators. Four of the six have already been discharged. The stock, which has been reversed twice, most recently 1:10, and the last time 1:50 finished the day $8.50 +6.09 (252.7%) Clearly a home run. But with a side note since the adjusted high after both reverses is $2,720. Quite a destroyer of equity.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN +.74, BGS -.75, FLO -.47, CAG -.19, MDLZ -.55, KHC +.81, CALM -.79, JJSF +10.71 (8.48%), SAFM -3.43, and LANC +3.09.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB -.46, ABBV +1.20, REGN -17.26 (3.27%), ISRG +16.27 (3.23%), GILD +6.37, MYL +1.06, TEVA +.36, VRTX +1.54, BHC +.95, INCY -1.71, ICPT +1.07, LABU +1.36, and IBB $126.55 +1.74 (1.39%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.18, CGC +.46, CRON +.06, GWPH -.18, ACB +.01, PYX +.03, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.30 (6.67%), KERN -.21 and MJ $12.44 +.18 (1.47%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.17, RTX +3.39, GD +.71, TXT +1.48, NOC -12.70, BWXT -.07, TDY +12.71 and ITA $161.85 +7.91 (5.14%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with WMT the big loser again -3.89 (3.04%), M +.26, JWN -.02, KSS +.66, DDS -.45, JCP -.017, TGT +.85, TJX +4.90 (9.98%), RL +2.53, UAA +.19, LULU +7.96, TPPR +1.24 (7.7%), CPRI +1.68 (11.17%), and XRT $37.92 +1.10 (2.99%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +112.43 (9.12%), AMZN +104.12 (4.5%), AAPL +13.72 (4.92%), FB +31.66 (17.31%), NFLX +8.68, NVDA +9.44, TSLA +101.80 (13.25%), BABA +7.15, BIDU +3.12, CMG +26.64, BA +9.65, CAT +5.28, DIS +6.51 (6.13%) and XLK $93.45 +5.25 (5.95%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS 5.49, JPM +3.71, BAC +1.31, MS +1.43, C +4.04 (8.56%), PNC +5.00, AIG +2.52 (9.97%), TRV +1.72, AXP +9.16 (10.39%), V +13.74 (8.02%) and XLF $23.38 +.66 (2.9%).
OIL, $15.06 +2.72. Oil was higher again today and seems to be making a decent show of making an important bottom. Tonight, it is higher again trading 15.95 +.89. The stocks were also much higher with gains of between 6% on the big names and as much as 30% on some of the small ones. XLE closed $39.95 +3.77 (5.63%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,713.40 -8.80. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We have spent the last 3 days consolidating the gains and hit $1,720 today. I said I wanted to get long the GLD if we can probe the $1710 range, and when it traded $17.04 yesterday I was a buyer. We took the downside move this morning and averaged down @ $1.06, and they closed $1.61. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $8825 +1045. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $9.60 +1.20 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Crossing the Ocean | Monthly FI Portfolio Update - February 2020

No one would have crossed the ocean if he could have gotten off the ship in the storm.
Charles Kettering
This is my thirty-ninth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $772 191
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $44 099
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 139
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 360
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 810
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $32 294
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $250 949
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 844
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 083
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 580
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $114 375
Secured physical gold – $18 455
Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $13 971
Bitcoin – $149 920
Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 424
Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 446
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 485
Total portfolio value: $1 803 425 (-$69 900 or -3.7%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.1% (2.9% under)
Global shares – 22.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.1%
Total international shares – 27.7% (2.3% under)
Total shares – 69.8% (5.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.6%
International bonds – 9.7%
Total bonds – 14.3% (0.7% under)
Gold – 7.4%
Bitcoin – 9.7%
Gold and alternatives – 15.7% (5.7% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
Equity markets fell significantly this month, resulting in a portfolio loss of around $70 000. This is the largest monthly fall across the three years of this record in dollar terms, and the third largest as a proportion of assets.
[Chart]
The falls follow a large increase in the portfolio value last month, and have occurred amidst increasing global impacts and fears from the spread of the Corona virus. The losses are mainly in Australian and global equities and have been concentrated in the last two weeks.
Overall, the portfolio fell around 6 per cent from a peak in mid-February. Amidst this downward movement, gold and Bitcoin have performed relatively positively, with the price of gold increasing and Bitcoin mostly maintaining its value. Consistent with their role of diversifying portfolio risks, the value of bond holdings slightly increased over the period.
[Chart]
The equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS).
In better news, this month expenditure has been lower than over the summer holiday period, continuing the broader declining trend. The most significant development in looking at the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, however, is a new downward slope in distributions.
[Chart]
This is the first in this particular record, and results from the three year averaging window starting to move beyond a period of exceptionally high distributions in 2017. So it is an artefact of the chosen time period, and, for example, the equivalent four year comparison does not show this.
Relocating the emergency stores
This month has also seen a small re-entry into exploration of the world of fintech, through opening an account with Neo-bank Xinja. The motivation was an interest rate of 2.25 per cent, with no complex bonus eligibility rules. Added to this was curiosity about the experience with the product.
The sign-up process was quick and easy, and I am planning to use it instead of a previous Ubank USaver online account - paying less than half of that in interest - for my emergency fund. So far the process has been smooth, and the pre-tax benefit of the switch from the improved rate is around $33 per month.
Worse things happen at sea - modelling future portfolio risks
With a range of markets at or close to highs, pushing progress towards my financial objective forwards in past weeks, I had been considering the issue of downside portfolio risk. Needless to say, the past week has reinforced the value of reflecting on that risk.
To keep this issue steadily in view I have for the past year kept a rough and ready data series, called 'Market Event', which rather crudely assumes a rapid 25 per cent fall in equity values. Over the past month I have spent time considering and building a slightly more sophisticated way of modelling the impact of market falls on the portfolio.
This allows some simple scenarios to be modelled, and recognises the potential for different behaviour of individual parts of the portfolio (for example, equities, bonds, gold and Bitcoin) in equity market falls. The value in this is that it allows better visibility of what the portfolio could look like after what are, in historical terms, quite regular occurrences.
The three illustrative scenarios modelled are:
These are imperfect simplifications of a myriad of possible events over different timeframes. Yet they are still sufficient to give a sense of the range of underlying risks in equity markets.
The question they help answer is: just how does diversification actually reduce risk and volatility? In the scenarios below it is assumed that losses in equities are partly offset by gains in alternative diversifying assets (such as bonds, gold or even - more speculatively - Bitcoin).
The reactions of these alternative assets to equity market falls are not a constant. In fact, research indicates (pdf) that from the early 2000s bonds have transitioned from being negatively correlated to equity (rising when equity prices fall), to be mildly positively correlated at times.
Therefore, populating the three scenarios in Figure 1 has included some assumptions, drawing typically on long-term historical averages and some judgement, rather than just extrapolating performance over the past 15 years.
Testing the waters - the scenarios results
The results of each of these scenarios are set out below.
Figure 1 - Illustrative Effect of Three Market Scenarios on the FI Portfolio
[Diagram]
Some observations on the scenarios and model outputs are:
Critically, the results of this thought experiment are sensitive to correlation assumptions.
Relationships between assets returns change over time, in both direction and magnitude. This means reliance on historical relationships is not a certain guide. In the case of Bitcoin, especially, no long historical pattern of relationship exists. Changing the magnitudes or the plus or minus sign from the correlation assumptions I have adopted produces quite different results.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.7% 112.8% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.9% 137.6% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.9% 110.3%
Summary
This month has seen a transition from the heat of summer, smoke, into storms and an unsettled period. This has been reflected in both daily life as well as in the continuing volatility in markets and the portfolio. It has felt like a changing of perspective, and a shifting vantage point upon the world.
The last post sought to trace my shifting perceptions and actions while investing through the Global Financial Crisis. A barrier to this was reconstructing contemporaneous thoughts from the persistent embrace of hindsight bias. This record is partly designed to overcome that problem.
My perceptions on current falls are that they are unsurprising given the strong record of equity markets over the past decade, but that it is simply unknown and unknowable whether they represent a 'typical' pull back that routinely occurs, or the opening stages of a sustained downturn in equity markets lasting 12-24 months.
These times can lead to a sense of being a passive observer of events beyond our control. The potential loss analysis above - which was started before the recent downturn - is designed to at least start to put some boundaries around these uncertainties, and volatility. To 'practice' - as it were - facing possible outcomes before we come upon them. Regularly reviewing downside exposures helps re-check that the portfolio risk is at the right level, and avoid complacency from past market gains by reinforcing their potentially temporary nature.
Another method of addressing the same issue is to maintain flexibility around future spending rules or withdrawal rates. This paper (pdf) from Vanguard proposes a particular 'dynamic spending rule'. This places moving 'guardrails' around a spending level, partially recognising the value of market gains (or losses). As a concept, this is potentially a helpful update to simple 'rules of thumb' such as the 4.0 per cent safe withdrawal rate (or its 2012 updated version, the 4.5 per cent 'rule').
On the same topic, from a different direction, I have been interested in the findings of this research paper (pdf) based on a century of data of Australian equity returns. It makes a strong case for lowering expectations for future returns. Similarly, this interview provides an intriguing suggestion of how the next global financial crisis may originate from central banks, rather than private debt or equity markets.
Finally, Credit Suisse have released their annual yearbook of global investment. This year unfortunately only a partial snapshot of global returns is given. This work highlights the changing nature of global investment through time, as sectors and technologies change, and provides useful historical checks on past global equity returns (5.2 per cent on a geometric basis).
Backed by a century of data, it also reinforces the truism that most journeys are defined by their end, even though storms and uncertainties may assail us on the passage.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!

That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ???
Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth.
Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ...
.
Bitcoin Achievements so far:
  1. It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
  2. Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
  3. Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
  4. Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
  5. Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
  6. Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
  7. Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
  8. It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
  9. It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
  10. Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
  11. Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
  12. Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
  13. Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
  14. Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
  15. Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
  16. Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
.
Correct Predictions:
  1. 2015-12: "1,000 dollar in 2015", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/ (Technically, this prediction is WRONG because the highest price reached in 2015 was $495.56 according to CMC. Yes, Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014, but that's NOT what the prediction says).
  2. 2017-12: "10,000 in 2017", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  3. 2018-04: $10,000 (by April 2018), Mike Novogratz, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/mike-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-end-the-year-at-10-000
  4. 2018-12: $10,000 (by 2018), Tim Draper, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AW5s6QkRRY
  5. Any others ? (Please tell me).
.
Bitcoin Promises / Claims / Price Predictions that turned out to be lies and bullshit:
  1. ANONYMOUS
  2. CENSORSHIP RESISTANT
  3. FRICTIONLESS
  4. TRUSTLESS
  5. UNCENSORABLE
  6. UNTRACEABLE
  7. SAFE
  8. SECURE
  9. YOU CANNOT LOSE
  10. NOT A SCAM
  11. PERMISSIONLESS
  12. GUARANTEED PRIVACY
  13. CANNOT BE SEIZED
  14. CANNOT BE CONFISCATED
  15. Be your own bank
  16. Regulation-proof
  17. NO MIDDLEMEN
  18. DECENTRALIZED
  19. Instantaneous transactions
  20. Fast transactions
  21. Zero / No transaction fees
  22. Low transaction fees
  23. A store of value
  24. A deflationary digital asset
  25. "A deflationary digital asset that no single human being can destroy."
  26. "an asset that is equally as dual use as a car, water, or any other traditional element that has existed."
  27. "Digital gold"
  28. Easy to use
  29. Cannot be stolen
  30. Cannot be hacked
  31. Can be mined by anyone
  32. Can be mined by anyone, even with an old computer or laptop
  33. Cannot be centralized
  34. Will return power back to the people.
  35. Not a Ponzi scam
  36. Not a Pyramid scam
  37. Never pay tax again
  38. Your gains cannot be taxed
  39. A currency
  40. An amazing new class of asset
  41. An asset
  42. A means to economic freedom
  43. A store of value
  44. The best investment the word has ever seen
  45. A great investment
  46. Efficient
  47. Scalable
  48. Stable
  49. Resilient
  50. Reliable
  51. Low energy
  52. Low risk
  53. Redistribute wealth to everybody
  54. No more have's and have not's
  55. No more US and THEM
  56. No more disadvantaged people
  57. No more RICH and POOR
  58. No more poor people
  59. Uses amazing new technology
  60. Uses ingenious new technology
  61. Satishi Nakamoto invented ...
  62. Segwit will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  63. Lightning Network will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  64. Limited by scarcity
  65. Can only go up in value
  66. Price cannot crash
  67. Has intrinsic value
  68. Value will always be worth more than cost to mine
  69. Adoption by investors is increasing exponentially
  70. Adoption by investors is increasing
  71. Adoption by merchants is increasing exponentially
  72. Adoption by merchants is increasing
  73. You are secure if you keep your coins on an exchange
  74. You are secure if you keep your coins in a hardware wallet
  75. You are secure if you keep your coins in an air-gapped Linux PC
  76. Will change the world
  77. "the next phase in human evolution"
  78. "Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet"
  79. Blockchain can solve previously unsolvable problems.
  80. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain"
  81. "Bank the unbanked"
  82. "To abolish financial slavery and the state's toxic monopoly on money."
  83. "To have better tools in the fight against the state violence and taxation."
  84. "To stamp information on a blockchain forever so we can bypass state censorship, copyrights, patents(informational monopolies) etc."
  85. Will destroy / overthrow FIAT
  86. Will destroy / overthrow the world's governments
  87. Will destroy / overthrow the banking system
  88. Will destroy / overthrow the world economies
  89. Will free people from tyranny
  90. Will give people financial freedom
  91. Will bring world peace
  92. Never going below $19K again
  93. Never going below $18K again
  94. Never going below $17K again
  95. Never going below $16K again
  96. Never going below $15K again
  97. Never going below $14K again
  98. Never going below $13K again
  99. Never going below $12K again
  100. Never going below $11K again
  101. Never going below $10K again
  102. Never going below $9K again
  103. Never going below $8K again
  104. Never going below $7K again
  105. Never going below $6K again
  106. Never going below $5K again
  107. Never going below $4K again
  108. Is NOT a Scam
  109. Hashing Power secures the Bitcoin network
  110. Untraceable, private transactions
  111. Guaranteed privacy
  112. Not created out of thin air
  113. Not created out of thin air by unregulated, unbacked entities
  114. Totally NOT a scam
  115. Is not used primarily by crimonals, drug dealers, or money launderers.
  116. 100% secure
  117. 2010 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  118. 2011 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  119. 2012 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  120. 2013 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  121. 2014 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  122. 2015 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  123. 2016 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  124. 2017 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  125. 2018 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  126. 2019 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  127. 2010: MASS ADOPTION any day now"
  128. 2011: MASS ADOPTION aany day now"
  129. 2012: MASS ADOPTION aaany day now"
  130. 2013: MASS ADOPTION aaaany day now"
  131. 2014: MASS ADOPTION aaaaany day now"
  132. 2015: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaany day now"
  133. 2016: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaany day now"
  134. 2017: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaany day now"
  135. 2018: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  136. 2019: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  137. "Financial Freedom, bro."
  138. no single entity, government or individual, can alter or reverse its transactions
  139. insurance against the tyranny of state
  140. Bitcoin has come to destroy all governments and bring about the libertarian utopia of my dreams.
  141. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 2+ years.
  142. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 5+ years.
  143. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 7+ years.
  144. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 9+ years.
  145. 1,000's of predictions of skyrocketing and/or never falling prices
  146. Escape the petty rivalries of warring powers and nation states by scattering control among the many. The Bitcoin Cash debacle proves that even the most cryptographically secure plans of mice and men often go awry. Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zfhb6/like_theres_only_one_flaw_with_buttcoin_crash/ea8s11m
  147. People will NEVER be able to welch out of bets or deals again. Nov-2018, Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zvpl2/the_guy_who_made_the_1000_bet_that_btc_wouldnt/
  148. "Everything will be better, faster, and cheaper.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  149. "Everything will be more connected.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  150. "Everything will be more trustworthy.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  151. "Everything will be more secure.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  152. "Everything that exists is no-longer going to exist in the way that it does today.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  153. "Everything in this world is about to get better.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  154. You are a slave to the bankers
  155. The bankers print money and then you pay for it
  156. Bitcoin is The Peoples Money
  157. Bitcoin will set you free
  158. Bitcoin will set you free from the slavery of the banks and the government Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/cd2q94/bitcoin_shall_set_you_free/
  159. ~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  160. "When transactions are verified on a Blockchain, banks become obsolete.", Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  161. SnapshillBot quotes from delusional morons:
  162. "A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
  163. "All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
  164. "Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
  165. "Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
  166. "Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
  167. "Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
  168. "Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
  169. "Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
  170. "Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
  171. "Future us will thank us."
  172. "Give Bitcoin two years"
  173. "HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
  174. "Cut out the middleman"
  175. "full control of your own assets"
  176. "reduction in wealth gap"
  177. "no inflation"
  178. "cannot print money out of thin air"
  179. "Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
  180. "If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
  181. "Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
  182. "NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
  183. "I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
  184. "I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
  185. "I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
  186. "I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
  187. "I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
  188. "I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
  189. "I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
  190. "If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
  191. "If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
  192. "If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
  193. "In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
  194. "In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
  195. "Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
  196. "It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
  197. "It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
  198. "Just like the early Internet!"
  199. "Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
  200. "Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
  201. "let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
  202. "My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
  203. "No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
  204. "Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
  205. "Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
  206. "Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
  207. "Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
  208. "THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
  209. "The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
  210. "The bull run should begin any day now."
  211. "The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
  212. "The free market will clear away the bad actors."
  213. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
  214. "We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
  215. "We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
  216. "We have never seen something so perfect"
  217. "We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
  218. "We verified that against the blockchain."
  219. "we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
  220. "Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
  221. "What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
  222. "When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
  223. "When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
  224. "Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
  225. "Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
  226. "You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
  227. "You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
  228. "Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
  229. The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  230. Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  231. It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
  232. It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
  233. Fungible
  234. All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
  235. The price of Bitcoin can only go up.
  236. "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  237. Scarcity
  238. The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
  239. immune to government regulation
  240. "a world-changing technology"
  241. "a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
  242. "To Complex to Be Audited."
  243. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
  244. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
  245. "Why Bitcoin has Value: SCARCITY.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  246. "Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen, it is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  247. "Surely this digital scarcity has value.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  248. Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  249. "May 2018 will be the last time we ever see $bitcoin under $10,000", Charlie Shrem, bitcoin advocate and convicted felon, 11:31 AM 3-May-2018, https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/992109375555858433
  250. "Last dip ever.", AngeloBTC, 14 Oct 2018, https://mobile.twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/1051710824388030464/photo/1
  251. "Bitcoin May Have Just Experienced its Final Shakeout Before a Big Rally", Joseph Young, coin shill, October 15, 2018 22:30 CET, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-may-have-just-experienced-its-final-shakeout-before-a-big-rally/
  252. Bitcoin would be a buy if the price fell under $5,000., Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-a-buy-below-5000-says-allianz-chief-economic-adviso
  253. 2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  254. 2018-02: Bitcoin price to hit $27,000 by February 2018, Trace Mayer, host of the Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and self-proclaimed entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist and ardent defender, Link #1: https://mobile.twitter.com/TraceMayestatus/917260836070154240/photo/1, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  255. 2018-06: "Bitcoin will surpass $15,000 in June [2018]." John McAfee, May 25, 2018, https://bitcoinist.com/john-mcafee-says-bitcoin-will-surpass-15000-in-june/
  256. 2018-07: Bitcoin will be $28,000 by mid-2018, Ronnie Moas, Wall Street analyst and founder of Standpoint Research, http://helpfordream.com/2018/12/23/5-bitcoin-price-predictions-gone-wrong/.
  257. 2018-12: Bitcoin to reach a price of between 40,000 and 110,000 US dollars by the end of the 2017 bull run ... sometime before 2019, Masterluc, 26-May-2017, an anonymous "legendary" Bitcoin trader, Link #1: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  258. 2018-12: "There is no reason why we couldn’t see Bitcoin pushing $50,000 by December [2018]", Thomas Glucksmann, head of APAC business at Gatecoin, Link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  259. 2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at 30 grand or more by next Christmas [2018] - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully" u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
  260. 2018-12: 1 bitcoin = 1 Lambo. Remind me on Christmas eve [2018] u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/dtn2pna
  261. 2018-12: Been in BTC since 2014 and experienced many "deaths" of BTC... this too shall pass... $10k end of the year. [2018] u/Exxe2502, 30-Jun-2018 https://reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/8uur27/_/e1ioi5b/?context=1
  262. 2018-12: "Yale Alumni prediction - 30 Grand by Christmas [2018] - and you my friend... you will be the one eating Mcafee's dick in 2020. :) -:", u/SirNakamoto, 15-Jun-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/8r0tyh/fdic_agrees_to_cover_bitcoin_losses_in_event_of/e0nzxq7
  263. 2018-12: "Impossible For Bitcoin Not to Hit $10,000 by This Year (2018)", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 22-Sep-2018, https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/09/22/billionaire-novogratz-impossible-for-bitcoin-not-to-hit-10000-by-this-yea
  264. 2018-12: "[Bitcoin] between $13,800 and $14,800 [by end of 2018]", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 13-Dec-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/wall-streets-bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-we-are-tired-of-people-asking-us-about-target-prices.html
  265. 2018-12: "Bitcoin is going to be $15k-$20k by the end of the year (2018)", Didi Taihuttu, 1-Nov-2018, https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/the-bitcoin-gamble/85E3A4A7-C777-4827-9A3F-B387F2AB7654
  266. 2018-12: 2018 bitcoin price prediction reduced to $15,000 [was $25,000], Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 16-Nov-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/wall-streets-crypto-bull-tom-lee-slashes-year-end-forecast-by-10000.html
  267. 2018-12: "I want to be clear, bitcoin is going to $25,000 by year end (2018)", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 5-Jul-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/05/tom-lee-i-want-to-be-clear-bitcoin-is-going-to-25000-by-year-end.html
  268. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
  269. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will be priced around $50,000 by the end of the year (2018)", Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bitcoin-will-reach-50000-in-2018-says-founder-of-bitcoin-exchange.html
  270. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could definitely see $50,000 in 2018", Jeet Singh, cryptocurrency portfolio manager, speaking in January 2018 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, https://www.dcforecasts.com/new-prediction-says-bitcoin-hit-50000-2018/
  271. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year (2018)", Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, 17-Jan-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-headed-to-100000-in-2018-analyst-who-forecast-2017-price-move.html
  272. 2018-12: "Bitcoin price to surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2018", Tone Vays, 21-Sep-2017, https://www.ccn.com/prominent-bitcoin-trader-price-is-heading-towards-100000-in-2018/
  273. 2018-12: "Bitcoin’s Price Will Surpass the $100,000 Mark by the End of 2018", Anonymous ("author" obviously too embarrassed to put his name to such bullshit "articles"), Oct-2018, https://investingpr.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-for-2018/
  274. 2018-12: "Our [2018] year-end bitcoin target is $7700.", James Stefurak, Founder at Monarch Research. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  275. 2018-12: "... we’ll see the price rally reaching its all-time of high of around $20K before the end of 2018", Khaled Khorshid, Co-Founder at Treon ICO. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  276. 2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of $50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  277. Plus a whole host of wrong 2019 predictions (could not be included here because of post character limit issues), so please see my earlier post from 4 days ago: Ummm, remember those "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019 ..... ohhhhh dear ....., https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/eiqhq3/ummm_remember_those_expert_bitcoin_price/
.
But it's NOT all bad news, some claims and promises are yet to be determined:
  1. Never going below $3K again
  2. Never going below $2K again
  3. Never going below $1K again
  4. Any others ? Please let me know.
submitted by Crypto_To_The_Core to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Doing the Math on the S4E10 eCoin Transaction...

In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts.
If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today...
How much money was transferred?
According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know.
Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion.
How many people did the money go to?
That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collapses as wealth spreads around the world." So Darlene could have sent the money to every individual with an eCoin wallet in the world, or she could be sending them to every American, or to everybody in the developed world. I doubt the average rice farmer in Indonesia is really using eCoin, but it's possible. If she only sent it to every American, our wealth tends to spread around the globe pretty fast, so that's possible, too.
Lets work with World Bank population numbers for all three of these possibilities...
World Population: 7.6 billion people
Global North (AKA the developed world): 1.24 billion people
United States: 327 million people
So we have 6 possibilities for how much money was sent to each person...
People Total Money Money Per Capita Satoshis
7.6 billion $2.7 trillion $355.53 4,739,471
1.21 billion $2.7 trillion $2230.82 29,741,808
327 million $2.7 trillion $8252.65 110,079,512
7.6 billion $8.7 trillion $1145.60 15,279,332
1.21 billion $8.7 trillion $7188.22 95,883,716
327 million $8.7 trillion $26591.89 355,275,242
How much would this transaction cost with bitcoin?
Aside from the fact that eCoin probably functions differently than bitcoin, this is a very complex question. I'm definitely not as sure about these numbers as the other numbers I have, but I'll do my best to come up with useful, realistic numbers. If you are more familiar with the block chain than me, please correct me.
The coins were taken from 100 different Deus Group accounts. Lets say each transaction launders through a bitcoin tumbler 1,000 times. I'm going to ignore transaction fees for the tumbling process, because I don't fully understand the details of tumbling, but 1,000 times seems reasonable to me.
That means that there are 100 x 1,000 = 10,000 inputs in any transaction that spends all the money from the Deus group.
For outputs... for simplicity's sake, I will make the conservative assumption that everybody has one eCoin wallet. That means somewhere between 327 million and 7.6 billion outputs. Accounting for everybody having multiple wallets would make the transaction even bigger, but this is a good starting point to get a feel for what this transaction would look like, in the real world.
How long will this transaction take to process?
There is a bidding process and a bit of politics involved in processing a cryptocurrency transaction. For simplicity, I'll assume we bid enough that this transaction gets priority treatment from the bitcoin miners.
According to blockchain.com, transactions happen on the block chain at a rate of roughly 3.5 transactions per second. At that rate, the tumbling would take roughly 48 minutes, rather than the few seconds it took for Darlene to tumble this money.
According to buybitcoinworldwide.com's fee calculator, here are the transaction sizes, the transaction fees involved (in US Dollars), and the time it would take at 3.5 transactions per second...
Inputs Outputs Size Cost Time
10,000 7.6 billion 240.4737 Gb $38,884,280.55 68.85 years
10,000 1.21 billion 38.32587 Gb $6,192,571.09 10.96 years
10,000 327 million 10.35582 Gb $1,673,260.46 2.96 years
So this transaction would take years to go through, and it pays Evil Corp somewhere between $1.6 and $38 million. In the real world, most of that money would go to Chinese bitcoin miners.
What would the impact be?
A one time windfall of $327 per capita would probably not trigger hyperinflation in America. The largest payout we calculated was $26.5k, and I doubt that would cause hyperinflation, either. Regular inflation? Yes. Hyperinflation? Probably not.
It might lead to hyperinflation in other countries, though, because of differences in purchasing power.
Purchasing power parity is a number that describes the differences in the cost of goods and services around the world. $5 in America will buy you a big mac, but if you go to, say, Indonesia, you can buy a lot more with that $5, because Indonesia is full of people who make something like 25 cents a week.
OECD.org publishes PPP (purchasing power parity) numbers for countries all around the world. If you want to know how far your dollar will stretch, on average, in a foreign country, consult this list. If you have $100 in America, you can expect it to be worth $100 worth of American goods and services, so on the OECD table, it has a PPP of 1.0. If you take that $100 to, say, the UK, where the PPP is 0.7, you can expect that $100 to be worth $70 worth of goods and services. If you take that $100 to Australia, where the PPP is 1.48, you can expect that $100 to buy roughly $148 worth of goods and services.
If Elliot and Darlene were genius economists, I might expect them to account for PPP in their payout. They would have to be geniuses, to predict what PPP is doing after events like the 5/9 hack, because their best data would be out of date, so they would have to use all kinds of fancy regressions and tricks to figure out how that would work in such a volatile world economy. They definitely aren't economists, though, so I'll assume they sent the same nominal amount to everybody.
So what's the range on how much purchasing power this transaction gives people around the world? In 2018, the highest PPP number on the OECD list is Indonesia, with a PPP of 4,245.613140. The lowest PPP on the list is Lithuania, with a PPP of 0.457582. Lets see how this shakes out in each of these countries...
$ Per Capita Lithuania (0.46) Indonesia (4,245.61)
$355.53 $162.68 $1,509,442.84
$2,230.82 $1,020.78 $9,471,198.70
$8,252.65 $3,776.26 $35,037,559.28
$1,145.60 $524.20 $4,863,774.41
$7,188.22 $3,289.20 $30,518,401.29
$26,591.89 $12,167.97 $112,898,877.60
What would this cause? People might predict a lot of different things. The Yang gang people probably strong opinions on this. I have a bachelor's degree in economics, so I believe I can predict that most mainstream economists would predict the following...
In Lithuania, when they get a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, they probably raise a pint to F Society, then put the rest towards a house or car payment, or buy themselves something nice. Minor inflation would happen, probably starting at the pubs, and that would worry financial types, but it would not cause any kind of major economic catastrophe.
In Indonesia, where everybody becomes an asset millionaire overnight, they will probably have hyperinflation, mass social upheaval, and violence.
In conclusion...
TL;DR: What Darlene did last night with eCoin isn't actually possible with bitcoin, and the impact in America might not be as great as you think, but the impact would be much bigger in poorer parts of the world.
submitted by bubblesort to MrRobot [link] [comments]

VIEW SOURCE  bitcoin price chart with vx Money Charts - YouTube EILMELDUNG!!! BITCOIN CHART ZEIGT...!!!!!! INSANE CHART!!! BITCOIN HALVING NOW PARABOLIC ON GOOGLE!! BTC BREAKOUT IMMINENT!!!? PROOF: INSTITUTIONS ARE ACCUMULATING BITCOIN! 112'000 Bitcoin Moved!

Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee measures the average fee in USD when a Bitcoin transaction is processed by a miner and confirmed. Average Bitcoin transaction fees can spike during periods of congestion on the network, as they did during the 2017 Crypto boom where they reached nearly 60 USD. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Bitcoin Charts. Blocks: 481823: Total BTC: 16.523M: Difficulty: 923233068449: Estimated: 887736944047 in 1 blks: Network total: 7983858.406 Thash/s : Blocks/hour: 7.25 / 497 s: Home; Bitcoin; Markets; Charts; About. Sep 13, 2020 19:16 ... Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Bitcoin Charts. Blocks: 481823: Total BTC: 16.523M: Difficulty: 923233068449: Estimated: 887736944047 in 1 blks : Network total: 7983858.406 Thash/s: Blocks/hour: 7.25 / 497 s: Home; Bitcoin; Markets; Charts; About. Oct 23, 2020 09:28 ... Coin Insider is the authority on Bitcoin. Insight into the latest breaking blockchain news; providing bulletins, incisive opinion, market analysis, and regulatory updates. Charts, historical & current price of Bitcoin. Trade Bitcoin on the following exchanges: Bitcoin Average hashrate (hash/s) per day Chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets GTrends Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward

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VIEW SOURCE bitcoin price chart with vx

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